Scientists suspect that the earliest generations of human will die in the next pandemic. However they do not expect to change quickly because many people are unaware of this observation.
The first pandemic could occur as early as 2050 comments the author of a very optimistic paper on this topic.
In the paper published in global health journal The Lancet: The Lancet on April 28 Indias Jayachandra Guhathakkara a post-doctoral fellow at Raytheon Institute for Cancer Research said: We predict that tens of millions of people will die during this very uncertain and devastating pandemic resulting in 560 million deaths between now and 2050 (…) that will be the largest number of deaths of any year.
According to Indian ecological experts the number of die-offs in India as a result of pandemic in just over a decade could cause 1. 2 billion.
Hotepoctors do not expect the first wave of a pandemic to change dramatically especially given the global complications of today. Seeing that most deaths are expected at most later age groups the reason for this may be the inflexibility of law and order they say.
But the reason does not depend on the actual trend of the first wave. Pandemic master plan estimations have not yet been reached explains Jayachandra. We predict that death in the first two three or even five months of the pandemic will have the greatest effect on an estimated 8 million-23 million people. However sudden and large-scale outbreaks of diseases can have the greatest influence on the estimates he said.
Deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 the most deadly virus in the world are expected from SARS among children who had close contact with an infected adult as well as from the general public.
Possible coverage strategy.
Jayachandra expects that around Rs. 10000 crore will be lost due to the first phase of infection. Over the next 25 years Rs. 15000 crore will be lost as a result of the second phase.
As of August 26 around 24 countries in the world have been hit by the unprecedented pandemic: 3 in India and 2 in Iran have reported deaths while 4 cases have been reported in Brazil the United States Italy South Sudan and the United Kingdom.